Journalism Proficiency Courses organized by the Institute of the CIS Studies and OOO RosUkrCounsulting with assistance of Fund of Public Diplomacy after A.M. Gorchakov, Governmental Commission of the Russian Federation on Compatriots Living Abroad and ZAO Tiraspol Wine&Brandy Distillery KVINT are taking place in Yalta these days. Media representatives from Pridnestrovie, Moldova and Novorossiya are participating in the event. On March 23 Director of Institute of CIS Studies Konstantin Zatulin held master-class for the journalists. Acting on their request he commented Russia's position on settlement of Moldo-Pridnestrovian relations, on the results of last Pridnestrovian presidential elections and on the perspectives of the development of situation in this region of Europe.
As Russian politician noted, official Moscow always hoped it would be possible to keep Moldova in her former borders. “Ethnic Russians are living on both banks of Dniester river and thus it would be more comfortable for Russia to protect their rights”, – Konstantin Zatulin explained. But, according to his words, all these years Moldova has been drifting towards Romania while Pridnestrovie developed its own inertia of development. “That is why I am not sure if it is not late for reconstruction of a unified State. For the time being only Pridnestrovie has been halting Moldova's absorption by Romania. But today, when more and more pro-Romanian politicians come to power in Chisinau, Russia should reconsider her logic of conduct and at all cost preserve Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, support new President of the PMR”, – he stated.
Touching upon the topic of preelection processes in Pridnestrovie and South Ossetia, politician expressed his belief that those officials from the Administration of President of the Russian Federation, who were in charge of these questions, would be replaced in the near future. “They did not handle their work in South Ossetia, they launched this ‘wonderful' election campaign in Pridnestrovie, which led to defeat of then-President Smirnov but did not lead to victory of “candidate of Kremlin” Kaminskiy”, – Zatulin explained. According to him, an attempt to ‘improve the opinions of Pridnestrovians' nearly led to destabilization of the entire region. If politicians like Saakashvili were in charge in Chisinau, they would undoubtedly use the difficult situation in Pridnestrovie and would try to interfere in the domestic issues of the PMR, – he said.
Konstantin Zatulin complimentary responded on the Russia's decision to provide 150 million dollar aid to Pridnestrovie. Touching upon the demands voiced by Moldovan foreign minister Iurie Leanca on directing Russian aid to Pridnestrovie through Chisinau, Zatulin expressed his doubts that in such case it may not reach Tiraspol at all. He noted that Western humanitarian aid for Kosovo or Georgia never reached Serbs of Kosovo, Abkhazians or Ossetians. That is the reason why Moscow shall neglect Chisinau's demands. At the same time, according to Konstantin Zatulin, such activity of Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration testifies the growth of tensions. “It is not a good news for Moldo-Pridnestrovian settlement at all”, – he concluded.
Answering the question on the perspectives of settlement of Moldo-Pridnestrovian relations, Konstantin Zatulin presumed that Moldova and Pridnestrovie could form a State like Bosnia and Herzegovina which is created on negotiable basis and actually consists of two separate States with their own parliaments and law enforcement agencies. Stability of this State is strictly fixed by Deiton agreements. In such scenario, Pridnestrovie would become an anchor holding Moldova from integration with Romania and thus would maintain regional stability. However, event those Moldovan politicians who speak for territorial integrity of their State, refuse to give any concessions to Tiraspol, demanding preservation of unitary State. This is one of the reasons why both sides are far from agreement on the problem of settlement.
Russian politician expressed his believe that now, when Vladimir Putin has carte blanche in foreign policy, Russia would base its policy on rational conception of what is going on in Pridnestrovie. “Now it is not the year 1999, when Yeltsin could sign the Istanbul Agreements, the situation around Pridnestrovie is more quite,” he said. According to Zatulin, the forthcoming rotation of personnel in Presidential Executive Office and the appointment of Dmitry Rogozin, who is well acquainted with Pridnestrovie, may signify, that Russia will help Pridnestrovie to escape complicated economical situation.
During the lection Konstantin Zatulin told about the risks of development of domestic policy process in Russia which existed in recent months. Commenting upon the Presidential election held on March 4, the politician reported, that “March revolution did not took place”. According to him, the issue which concerns the power in Russia is settled to date, but the problems which caused very complicated internal policy crisis which revealed in mass actions on Bolotnaya – Sakharov, are not solved yet. Konstantin Zatulin noted that all revolutions have a factor of foreign influence, and any revolution is made by not the poorest part of society. Revolutions promote the ideals of freedom and equality of rights, but the bearers of such ideas are, as a rule, the representatives of different social groups.
“Bolotnaya – Sakharov supporters are rather successful and young people – active users of social networks, they can quickly gather in order to express protest. They have grounds for the protest,” Konstantin Zatulin noticed. In particular, when they say, that acting system does not have enough social lifts, and not all successful and talented people can participate in governing of the state, they are right. These people demand freedom for themselves, but these demands are used by the so-called “non-systemic opposition” – Nemtsov, Kasparov, Kasianov and other right-wing liberal actors, who receive consultations in foreign embassies. Along with this, the protestors do not know, that basic mass of population is concerned with other problems – the problems of elementary physical survival. These masses also need the equality.
Konstantin Zatulin supposed, that Russian society which survived in the 20th century three revolutions and the dissolution of the country has a vaccination against cataclysms of such kind. He reminded about the events of the February Revolution of 1917. The Empire has fallen during the week. But it was not shattered by poor workers and peasants, it was shattered by bourgeoisie which laid claim on the power and carried out the conspiracy against Tsar with the help of mediation of English and French Embassies. “During World War I countries of the Entente were not sure, that Russia would not decide to conclude separate peace treaty with Germany. The leaders of liberal opposition forced Tsar to abdicate, but they came into power bounded by the obligations to make war till final victory given to England and France. They could not provide peace for the country. As a result, they had secured freedom for themselves, but after a certain moment they were swept away by the masses that demanded equality for every one,” he reported.
Switching over to post-election situation in the country, Konstantin Zatulin reported, that it is important for Russia not to have even signs of diarchy. According to him, when the “tandem” had developed, the phantom of diarchy appeared in Russia. With the help of Western structures it turned into a large-scale crisis by the end of 2011. “Putin does not resemble Nicholas II – he is confident in his powers, he is supported by people, he managed to preserve the power. But there is one more danger – right-wing liberal part of elite which failed the election is trying to convince the President-elect to take their course,” the Director of the Institute of the CIS countries said. Expert explained to journalists the mechanism of crisis and possible variants of further development of the events. He expressed belief, that President-elect “must not only reign, but rule,” that was the reason for his and other members' of the Club of those who voted for Russia and Vladimir Putin initiative to abolish the post of the Chairman of the Government of Russia and to vest the President with an authority to govern the Ministers – the members of his Executive Office directly.
During master-class Konstantin Zatulin also touched upon the topics of Russia-Ukraine relations, the perspectives of the European Union, answered the questions of the journalists on the five-day war of 2008.
